The time has come - Oscar season! Where the "best" in movies come to duke it out to win a little statue of a naked gold man. While pitting wildly different artistic expressions against each other like a sporting event is inherently ridiculous, it's always fun to bet on the winners, and discover new movies based on the nominations! So if you want some predictions from a freak who has seen every nominated film, look no further!
BEST PICTUREAll Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TAR
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Kung fu-multiverse-family dramedy-mind bender Everything Everywhere All at Once is the juggernaut to beat this year. While the BAFTA Award (the British equivalent to the Academy Awards) went to the German WWI epic All Quiet on the Western Front, Everything Everywhere took the top prize at the Critics' Choice Awards, the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild. With the most amount of nominations and precursor wins, I can't conceive of any other film taking it down!
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Stephen Spielberg, The Fabelmans
I Predict: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
While there has been more of a Picture-Director split the last few years, I think the "Daniels" will earn the credit this year. While I can imagine Spielberg winning in this category as The Fabelmans is a not-thinly veiled portrait of his own life, celebrating the power of directing, I just think it's Everything Everywhere's year. Plus, if my other predictions are accurate, that would mean Spielberg winning would be the sole win for The Fabelmans, which would be as similar a rare feat for a film to win just Best Director as The Power of the Dog with Jane Campion.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Cate Blanchett, TAR
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
I can picture Michelle Yeoh boarding the Everything Everywhere steamroller, but I do think if the wealth is to be spread in certain categories, Cate Blanchett could win for TAR. She pretty much IS the movie, and impressively learned to conduct and speak German for the role. Plus, TAR definitely overperformed in the nominations, even taking a Best Director nomination over the likes of James Cameron and Baz Luhrmann, and getting some below-the-line nominations like cinematography and editing.
Blanchett's cold, domineering Lydia Tar doesn't have the same "heart" as Michelle Yeoh's performance, however - and some may see this as the perfect opportunity to award the iconic action star a well-deserved Academy Award for the first time (while Blanchett already has two Oscars). But then again, I used that same logic to dismiss Frances McDormand's chances of winning the category for Nomadland when she took home her third Oscar, so this will be a contentious category until the end!
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
It's a Butler vs. Brendan cage match! The King of Rock vs. The King of making you ugly-cry in the theater! Maybe I'm biased because The Whale was one of my favorite movies last year, but I think it's Brendan Fraser's year. Often the Best Actor award goes hand-in-hand with Best Make-up, as an indication of a truly transformative performance. It's also based on a play and very actor-focused, similar to Anthony Hopkins' win for The Father.
Then again, the Oscars LOVE their real life musicians, with movies like Bohemian Rhapsody and Judy previously winning the category, almost as a way of posthumously honoring Freddy Mercury and Judy Garland, respectively. And with the recent passing of Lisa Marie Presley, the Elvis legacy is definitely on the forefront of voters minds, favoring Austin Butler for the win.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
While my vote would be for Hong Chau in The Whale, I'd be happy to see any of these prospective first-time winners take it home! But my money will go for Angela Bassett - after all, as former Academy Award winner Ariana DeBose put it: "She did the thing!" This would make her the first performance awarded for a Marvel film. Her role in the film holds double impact as she is mourning both the death of the character of Black Panther, as well as the real-life death of actor Chadwick Boseman. Boseman also lost his last chance at winning Best Actor to Hopkins in 2021, in one of the most awkward endings to a broadcast ever since they ended with that category rather than Best Picture (likely in a failed effort to honor him).
But still, this is a tough category. Again, Everything Everywhere can continue its steamroll, and Kerry Condon could sneak in as the two "legacy" actresses - Jamie Lee Curtis and Bassett - could split the vote as people feel they are owed a statue for their career in general.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
From The Goonies to the Oscars, Ke Huy Quan's narrative is too good not to vote for him. A comeback of all comeback stories, he was roped back into acting after finding no roles after his work as a child actor. His Oscar campaign game has been heartfelt and genuine, and this is as much a lock as there is in an acting category this year.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
One of the snubs that got people riled up was Sarah Polley for Best Director, so this could be one of the ways to at least recognize her work. With "Talking" in the title, and a surprise Best Picture nomination, I feel like there's a good chance it could upset over the more-lauded adaptation All Quiet on the Western Front.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TAR
Triangle of Sadness
This is a huge toss-up for me between Banshees and Everything Everywhere, but I just can't imagine Banshees going home totally empty-handed. It's the "classier" script of the two, coming across like a play, whereas Everything Everywhere feels more like a "directors" movie. However, Banshees was shockingly not even nominated at the Writers Guild Awards! I may regret this, but as soon as I saw Banshees I felt it had this award written all over it.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo
Elvis
Empire of Light
TAR
I'm still reeling over the fact that Top Gun: Maverick isn't nominated here when it deserved to win! I think All Quiet has the best odds here though, especially since WWI film 1917 won the category previously.
COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
The first Black Panther won this category as well, and while it might seem like awarding the "same film," the addition of Aztec-inspired costuming for the villain Namor and his tribe of blue-skinned water people (watch out, Avatar!), as well as Angela Bassett's stunning headdresses, makes me think Ruth Carter will take home the prize again.
FILM EDITING
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
TAR
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere seems like one of the most difficult movies to edit on this list. Balancing different timelines and universes, there's a specific, kinetic rhythm to it that's appropriately musical considering the Daniels' prior work in music videos like "Turn Down for What." This was the only category in which it won at the BAFTA Awards as well, which in my mind is a good sign!
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
This could be a controversial pick because some corners of the internet have voiced issues with the film on grounds of "fat shaming." But this isn't a "Norbit" situation - The Whale suit was created with authenticity and care, not as a means of ridicule. Plus, recent history would indicate that often the "Best Actor" and "Best Makeup" categories go hand-in-hand, see: Jessica Chastain in Tammy Faye, Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour, and Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
I Predict: Babylon
I have no idea about some of these categories, but recreating old Hollywood seems to always work in the Production Design category's favor. In just the past ten years, see: Mank, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and La La Land (also from director Damien Chazelle). However, I also think Baz Luhrmann's Elvis can pull a win here, as his similarly over-stylized Great Gatsby took the category home back in 2014.
ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
It might be crazy to predict Babylon taking home more awards than The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis and The Fabelmans, but that's what I'm doing! Justin Hurwitz and Damien Chazelle should be regarded in the same light at Spielberg and Williams in terms of Director-Composer pairings - they always nail it! The Babylon score is no different, netting my top music score of the year for its eclectic sound that captures the hyper, bold, jazzy sound of 1920s Hollywood in a modernized way - almost like if Too Many Zooz existed in the Jazz Age.
This could also be the Academy's last chance to award John Williams with The Fabelmans, however, who at 90 is one of the oldest nominees ever. And I could also picture a surprise win for All Quiet on the Western Front, with its powerful and eerie soundtrack.
ORIGINAL SONG
"Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick
"Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
"Naatu Naatu" from RRR
"Tell It Like a Woman" from Applause
"This is a Life" from Everything Everywhere All at Once
The first fully-Indian film nominated for Best Song, I really hope that this opens the door for future films of its type to see nominations in the future. SO MANY amazing songs from India are passed over every year, even with MILLIONS of views online, and it's a damn shame. And I can't think of a better song than the mind-blowing number from the zany epic RRR to be the first at the gate.
BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
I'm never good at predicting the sound category, but I think the overperforming Top Gun: Maverick (it even got a Screenplay nomination!) won't go completely empty-handed. Top Gun was particularly sold as an "in-theaters" experience, whereas with All Quiet on the Western Front voters more than likely watched on their TVs at home via Netflix (therefore not getting the "full sound experience"). I could also see Elvis getting the award as well for the same reason though - tons of nominations, though shockingly I'm not predicting any wins for it elsewhere.
VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
This is one of the "locks" of the night. Cameron spent 13 years perfecting the state-of-the-art special effects for this film, and it literally changes the game for spectacle filmmaking.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
This is an absolute lock, though I would be happy if my #1 film of 2022, Turning Red, took the prize (or my #7 film Marcel the Shell with Shoes On). The stop-motion Pinocchio film has been crushing it everywhere, and I honestly will never have a problem continuing to award Guillermo del Toro because he's one of my favorite people!
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
I keep going back and forth between Fire of Love and Navalny, ironically two films that played during my volunteer shifts at the IFF Boston Film Festival. Fire of Love is a National Geographic film sporting stunning archival nature footage, about the relationship between two volcanologists - it would be a win similar to other human interest nature doc winners like Free Solo and My Octopus Teacher.
But in terms of relevancy, Navalny is also an excellent film, about a presidential candidate who was poisoned by the Russian government - which itself would be a win similar to other "real life conspiracy thriller" winners Citizenfour and Icarus. My coin flip was decided when Navalny won the Producers Guild Award - but it's still a wild guess!
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
I Predict: All Quiet on the Western Front
This is no contest. In recent years, there's usually one foreign film that rises through the ranks and earns a Best Picture nomination, so it's pretty much a given that All Quiet has this in the bag.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl
This is no contest. In recent years, there's usually one foreign film that rises through the ranks and earns a Best Picture nomination, so it's pretty much a given that All Quiet has this in the bag.
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
"The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse"
"The Flying Sailor"
"Ice Merchants"
"An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It"
"My Year of Dicks"
A very odd selection of shorts here, and I'm really not sure what will win. Nothing from either Disney or Pixar this year. "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse" is probably the highest-profile nominee, released on Apple TV, and based on a picture book - it's beautifully-animated but the messages are a little too simplistic and on-the-nose.
I think it comes down to either "Ostrich..." or "The Ice Merchants." "Ostrich..." is a very "meta" short, similar to the Looney Tunes' "Duck Amuck" in that it breaks the fourth wall, playing with the very medium of animation as the stop motion character becomes aware of his animator, almost like Neo in The Matrix. But typically the animated short is awarded to the one that pulls the heartstrings, and if that's the case, "Ice Merchants" takes the cake, using a minimalist style to evoke a wonderful ending that uses just three colors to maximize the emotional impact. When in doubt, I just go with my favorite!
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
"The Elephant Whisperers"
"Haulout"
"The Martha Mitchell Effect"
"How Do You Measure a Year?"
"Stranger at the Gate"
Of all the shorts categories, the documentaries were by far the highest quality, and any of them would deservedly win. Much like previous doc winner My Octopus Teacher, "The Elephant Whisperers" is a beautifully-shot film depicting a poignant connection between man and animal. The footage in here is undeniably incredible - but then again, so is the dreamlike "Haulout," which not only features some of the most incredible nature footage I've ever seen, but also an important message by the end.
My personal favorite was "How Do You Measure a Year?" - which, similar to the Richard Linklater film Boyhood, condenses the lifespan of a young girl to see how she changes over time. It definitely made me reflect on my own life and development, but I think its simplistic, "homemade" nature may be a detriment to its chances.
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
"An Irish Goodbye"
"Ivalu"
"Night Ride"
"Le Pupille"
"The Red Suitcase"
This is the toughest of the shorts to predict. I'm predicting this one because it was my personal favorite - a short thriller from the perspective of a young Middle Eastern girl sent to Germany in an arranged marriage with a much-older man. But when she lands, she attempts to avoid him at all costs and tries to run away. It's a harrowing story that feels all too true.
I wouldn't be surprised to see "An Irish Goodbye" take it as well, a charming Bucket List-type story of two brothers bonding after the death of their mother - but in the past few years the Oscars tend to go for more of the "intense"-type shorts ("The Long Goodbye," "Two Distant Strangers", "Skin"). "Night Ride" was also an ultimately heartwarming story of a woman that centers around a woman hijacking a train - it actually somehow works!
I will update this post after Oscar Sunday (March 12) to see how accurate my predictions were! There are sure to be surprises! Thanks for reading!
I will update this post after Oscar Sunday (March 12) to see how accurate my predictions were! There are sure to be surprises! Thanks for reading!
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