Summer 2019 Box Office Predictions

It's the summertime, right? At least according to Marvel/Disney it is! Calendars, seasons, time... they're just human constructs. And due to it soon being the inaugural "summer" movie season, it's also time for my annual box office predictions! The rules are listed below; if you'd like to play along leave your predictions in the comments!

- Pick 1-10 movies you think will top the US summer box office (April 26th through August 31st)

- 13 points for getting 1 or 10 exactly correct

- 10 points for getting 2-9 exactly correct

- 7 points if movie was one spot away

- 5 points if movie was two spots away

- 3 points if movie was anywhere in the top ten

- 1 point for each dark horse (pick three)

1. Avengers: Endgame
Release Date: April 26

This movie already is breaking records in online pre-sales alone, making this fourth and ostensibly "final" Avengers film an easy bet for the #1 spot this year. Although I anticipate it will be massively front-loaded, making most of its bank on opening weekend, I expect Endgame to be a seismic hit.

2. The Lion King
Release Date: July 19

Releasing 25 years after the original animated cultural phenomenon, I expect nostalgia-laden adults will bring their kids in droves to see this movie. I expect Beauty and the Beast-level numbers here.

3. Toy Story 4
Release Date: June 21

Never underestimate Pixar. It's hard to believe it's been 9 years since the last Toy Story movie! Although the perfectionist in me would've liked this franchise to stay a trilogy (since it's, to me, one of cinema's great trilogies), it makes total sense why Disney couldn't let go of this cash cow property.

4. Detective Pikachu
Release Date: May 10

If this movie came out when I was a kid, my brain would have exploded out the top of my head. The first live action Pokemon movie, Detective Pikachu has that adults-and-their-kids audience that can make this a mega-hit. Again, I think this summer is one heavily playing on 90s nostalgia.

5. Spider-Man: Far from Home
Release Date: July 5

The first post-Avengers MCU movie, Spider-Man: Far From Home is cited by Marvel movie mogul Kevin Feige as the official final film in their "Phase 3" cycle of films. Although we've had so many iterations of Spider-Man in the last 10-15 years, this version of the character that was first introduced in Captain America: Civil War is so much fun. Plus, it's going to own 4th of July weekend.

6. Hobbs and Shaw
Release Date: August 2

The Fast and the Furious franchise started as a humble street racing series, but somehow we've ended up with a spin-off film featuring beefed up super-spies and a cybernetically-enhanced Idris Elba. I think as long as the trailers remind audiences that this is tangentially related to the Furious movies and that the Rock and Jason Statham make for a fun action-comedy odd couple, this can be a big summer hit.

7. Aladdin
Release Date: May 24

For some strange reason, although Aladdin is also one of the most beloved of all of Disney's animated films, I don't see this performing nearly as well as The Lion King. I think the biggest hurdle this movie has to pull off is Will Smith's genie character, who will inevitably be scrutinized in comparison to Robin William's brilliant vocal performance in the 1992 classic. Despite that, I think this will still draw in fans of the property, with the film looking like a full-on dazzling Bollywood production.

8. Godzilla: King of the Monsters
Release Date: May 31

Giant monsters fighting other giant monsters. Between Transformers, King Kong, and Godzilla, having large creatures or robots duke it out seems to be a safe box office bet. For old school Godzilla fans, this also seems like a dream come true with the sheer amount of classic monsters included, like Rodan, Mothra, and King Ghidorah.

9. Secret Life of Pets 2
Release Date: June 7

The first one made a ton of money, and I expect this will make a comparable amount. Kids and adults alike will always find charm in pet-related humor, so I think this will have a few weeks to rack up some good money before Toy Story 4 blows it away.

10. Rocketman
Release Date: May 31

I almost went "dark horse" with this pick, but after the relative surprise success of last year's Bohemian Rhapsody, I think Rocketman will benefit from the hunger audiences might have for more rock music biopics. Even if the movie ends up disappointing, the music of Elton John is still massively popular (see: The Lion King).

Dark Horses:

Dark Phoenix (June 7)

I'm not sure even die hard X-Men fans are super excited for this one. The "Dark Phoenix" story arc was handled badly in the past with X-Men: The Last Stand, and the previous entry in this series, X-Men Apocalypse, was not especially well received. I have no evidence that this movie will totally flop, but it might mark the rare occasion an X-Men film doesn't land in the top ten.

Men in Black International (June 14)

Yet another movie banking on 90s nostalgia, this Men in Black reboot does have a shot at the top ten (I very nearly put it in the #10 spot). However, I just don't think Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson - two fine actors who are having stellar careers right now - will match that same spark or fun dynamic between Tommy Lee Jones and Will Smith in the originals.

Yesterday (June 28)

Like Elton John, people also love The Beatles. Yesterday has a fun hook - that one day all Beatles music disappears and only one struggling musician remembers it - and could be good counter-programming for all the big action and animated movies this summer.


Some notable movies I left off: Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, X-Men-meets-horror film The New Mutants, the animated Trolls ripoff UglyDolls, the Anne Hathaway/Rebel Wilson heist comedy The Hustle, Keanu Reeves' action-packed sequel John Wick 3, the reimagined Chucky remake Child's Play, live-action Nickelodeon adaptation Dora and the Lost City of Gold, and the horror anthology Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark.

Thanks again for reading! We'll see how I do in August!