Predicting the 91st Academy Awards [UPDATED]

The Academy Awards: the final destination for movie awards shows. Voted on by about 8,000 members across the film industry, it's basically Hollywood's Super Bowl, and film nerds like me love to try and predict the winners! It hasn't always been easy, and this year in particular, with the Academy seeing a new influx of voters from around the world, accurately guessing which films and performances will come away with a gold statuette will be a challenge. A challenge I accept!

* = Haven't seen it YET

BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

I Predict: Green Book

This is a tight race. Black Panther is a cultural phenomenon, but the nomination probably is the award - there's no way a Marvel superhero movie will win Best Picture! I think Bohemian Rhapsody is marred from its association with director Bryan Singer, fired off the set of the film and caught under sexual abuse allegations. The Favourite is flat out too weird. You can bet the farm that Roma will be awarded for Foreign Language film, but I expect the Academy won't "double dip." A Star is Born was snubbed for a Best Director nomination, and Vice doesn't feel like a "consensus" film.

I think the race is between BlackKklansman and Green Book. I give the slightest of slight edges to Green Book because it's a crowd-pleasing story and it won the Producers Guild Award, which has correctly predicted Best Picture 8 out of the last 10 years.

WINNER: Green Book

Now I can say the director of my favorite film of all time, Dumb and Dumber, is a 2-time Academy Award-winner. And that makes me happy.

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

I Predict: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

This race is between Alfonso Cuaron and Spike Lee. This is Spike's first nomination for Best Director after a long, illustrious career, and I can see the narrative where he takes it home. But Cuaron just seems like the front runner here, earning all the precursor awards, including the top Directors Guild Award.

WINNER: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Alfonso Cuaron went home with three Oscars tonight - for directing, cinematography, and best foreign film!

BEST ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

I Predict: Glenn Close, The Wife

Glenn Close, a veteran actress in Hollywood, has been nominated 7 times and has yet to win. I think this is definitely Close's year to finally take home an Oscar, not just for her brilliant portrayal of a wife whose Nobel prize-winning husband claims her writing as his own, but also for a decades-long career filled with other great performances.

WINNER: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

This was easily the biggest shocker of the night! Glenn Close - sitting in the front row, wearing an extravagant gold dress, KNEW she was getting an Oscar. But the tea leaves were wrong! Poor Glenn - she continues to be Oscar's most-losing living actor!

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

I Predict: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

I really want Cooper to sneak in a win here, but this race seems to square solely between Bale and Malek. I give the edge to Malek because often in these acting races, it's the biggest, most flamboyant performance that wins, and who could be a more flamboyant character than Freddie Mercury?

WINNER: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Unlike Glenn Close, Malek struck gold on his first nomination!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

I Predict: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Like Glenn Close, Amy Adams has been nominated 6 times, making her one of Hollywood's most-nominated "losers." Although she deserves an award eventually, I don't think her role in Vice was meaty enough. Instead, I'm confident Regina King will win since she won the Golden Globe and it's an emotional "mother" performance similar to Viola Davis in Fences (another African-American period drama based on literary source material). Stone and Weisz will probably cancel each other out for The Favourite.

WINNER: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

If Beale Street Could Talk... it would say: "Congrats, Regina King!"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

I Predict: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

He's swept all the other awards so far, including the Golden Globe and SAG, so Ali seems to have this award locked down. And deservedly so! Although I wouldn't mind a surprise win from Richard E. Grant for his first time nomination!

WINNER: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

I'm currently watching Ali killing it in True Detective on HBO - it's clear from that and Green Book and Moonlight this guy is a fantastic actor!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, and Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
Vice, Adam McKay

I Predict: Green Book

Because I think Green Book could win Best Picture, this screenplay win would go hand in hand with that. However, if this award does go to Roma or The Favourite early in the broadcast, I will definitely not be confident it will get the top prize!

WINNER: Green Book

I was happy for this win!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Star is Born, Eric Roth, Will Fetters, and Bradley Cooper
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel and Ethan Coen
BlackKklansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

I Predict: BlackKklansman

This is so, so close between Beale Street and Klansman... I really don't know which one to go with! But because I don't think Spike will win for Director, I think the Academy will at least award him for his contribution to the screenplay, marking his first win ever!

WINNER: BlackKklansman

YES SPIKE'S FIRST WIN!

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Border
Mary Queen of Scots*
Vice

I Predict: Vice

The makeup effects for Vice are truly incredible. Christian Bale totally transforms into Dick Cheney, and I'd be shocked if one of the other films won!

WINNER: Vice

I don't know what sorcery was involved, but Christian Bale looks just like Dick Cheney in this movie and this win is well-deserved.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite, Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne*

I Predict: The Favourite

This isn't easy to predict, considering the futuristic African costuming of Black Panther, the lively, cartoonish wardrobe of Mary Poppins Returns, and the beautiful period outfits of The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots. I'm going with the Favourite for now, but I'm not confident!

WINNER: Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter

You can't win them all! I'm glad Black Panther won - its costumes are so unique and badass!

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel*
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
A Star is Born, Matty Libatique
Cold War, Lukasz Zal

I Predict: Roma

Alfonso Cuaron not only wrote and directed Roma, he shot it too! This black and white Netflix movie will win for that long "ocean" shot alone!

WINNER: Roma

Yay for beautiful black and white!

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"All the Stars" from Black Panther
"I'll Fight" from RBG
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" from Mary Poppins Returns
"Shallow" from A Star is Born
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

I Predict: "Shallow" from A Star is Born

If I were to bet real money on any one category, this would be it. The most surefire win of the night! Especially after Gaga lost to Sam Smith a few years ago for her song "Til It Happens to You," this seems like a lock.

WINNER: "Shallow" from A Star is Born

As expected.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
BlackKklansman, Terence Blanchard
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman

I Predict: If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell

How the score for First Man didn't make the cut is beyond me. The lack of that beautiful, unique score also makes this highly difficult to predict! I'm going with Beale Street simply because its lush, romantic sound seems the most in line with past winners of this category.

WINNER: Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson

I definitely wasn't expecting this! I would've thought either Beale Street or Klansman, but I suppose the eclectic African-inspired instrumentation and vocals of Black Panther won over the voters! A bombastic superhero score is definitely unprecedented ground for this category! A superhero score has never been nominated, let alone won!

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

I Predict: RBG

Although there are still some strong films nominated, it pains me that Won't You Be My Neighbor and Three Identical Strangers were not included. From a technical filmmaking standpoint, Free Solo seems like the clear winner, showing some absolutely jaw-dropping IMAX footage of free solo mountain climbing. I'm tempted to go with it, but I'm betting on RBG, if only for political reasons (liberal Hollywood)! I wonder if Ruth Bader Ginsberg will attend the Oscars?

WINNER: Free Solo

I really kicked myself over missing this one!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai*
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

I Predict: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Two Marvel superhero movies - Black Panther and Into the Spider-Verse - are nominated this year! And both feature lead characters who are black. What a time to be alive! I think Spidey is the one to beat here for its inclusive message and incredible, unique animation style.

WINNER: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This is the first win in this category for a non-Disney/Pixar film since 2011's Rango!

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Capernaum, Lebanon*
Cold War, Poland
Never Look Away, Germany*
Roma, Mexico
Shoplifters, Japan

I Predict: Roma

I haven't seen all the nominees, but the sheer amount of nomination love that Roma got pretty much seals the deal that it will win this category.

WINNER: Roma

Soy listo. Algunas veces.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born

I Predict: Bohemian Rhapsody

I don't understand the sound categories that well, but usually sound mixing goes to the most musical movie (Whiplash, Les Mis). Between Bohemian Rhapsody, which involved more of a studio sound and lip syncing, and A Star is Born, which incorporated more live elements, A Star is Born seems like the more impressive accomplishment. However, Rhapsody also had the challenge of seamlessly combining Freddie Mercury's vocals with Rami Malek's performance, as well as recreating classic Queen concerts with a fantastic authenticity. I'm basically flipping a coin here!

WINNER: Bohemian Rhapsody

I guess that coin flip paid off!

BEST SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

I Predict: First Man

Space movies do well in sound editing (Arrival, Gravity), and First Man does a great job using sound to capture the "nuts and bolts" feeling of early space travel. But again, these categories are always tricky!

WINNER: Bohemian Rhapsody

I just can't believe that the sound in First Man was not somehow honored...

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

I Predict: The Favourite

Costume design and production design have been known to line up in the past, and the lavish period costumes and sets of The Favourite impressively created a rich and finely-detailed world of British royalty on a small budget.

WINNER: Black Panther

Well, I was right that costume and production design would line up - I was just off as to which movie would be awarded!

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

I Predict: First Man

If you're going for the "most" visual effects, Avengers would be it (I think the entire film is just visual effects!) - but First Man, although it was snubbed in most of the major categories, is the most prestigious film on this list. The visual effects are more subtle than its competitors, but that final moon landing sequence is phenomenal and packed with emotion.

WINNER: First Man

One small step for First Man.

BEST FILM EDITING
BlackKklansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

I Predict: Vice

Vice has the most noticeable editing of all the nominees, and sometimes that's all it takes to win, so I'm hedging my bet there (its win at BAFTA doesn't hurt either). But beware: BlackKklansman may win thanks to an amazing balance of comedy and drama, as well as a powerfully-edited sequence with Harry Belafonte. Also, some credit is due for the editors of Bohemian Rhapsody, who had to cobble together a coherent film after the director left the project!

WINNER: Bohemian Rhapsody

This one took me by surprise.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

I Predict: Bao

It's between Bao and Late Afternoon, but I think Bao is that kind of perfect bittersweet heartstring-puller that Pixar is best at. Pixar hasn't had much luck in the shorts category in the past decade or so - winning only once, for the beautifully photo-realistic Piper - but Bao feels like a winner!

WINNER: Bao

One of Pixar's best shorts ever, in my opinion!

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

I Predict: Skin

I LOVED all five of these shorts - but boy are they intense! Child abductions, unrequited elderly love, children sinking into cement pits, brutal racist beatings and even a short about the youngest convicted murderers ever (at age 10!). It's a wild category, but I'm going with Skin. It deals with issues of race in a blue collar town in some extreme ways! Plus it's the only short with semi-famous people in it (including the black kid from NBC's This Is Us), so it might hold its head above the other nominees.

WINNER: Skin

Great short, well-deserved. There are plans to make this into a feature film now!

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

I Predict: Period. End of Sentence.

All of these nominees are available online for free (if you have Netflix), so check them out! The only film on the list I can cross out is A Night at the Garden, which has a fascinating subject but all it is is archival footage without much context. The most "urgent" doc is Period. End of Sentence., about a group of Indian women manufacturing sanitation pads and ending the stigma of menstruation in their country. It's even more impressive that this project was started by high schoolers! The others are emotional and well-done too, but I can picture voters wanting to spread this film's message!

WINNER: Period. End of Sentence.

I am a short film prediction master!


Well, that's it! We'll see how I did on all 24 categories on Sunday, February 24th! If you want to play along, leave your predictions in the comments! I will update this post with the winners after the broadcast on Sunday!

FINAL TALLY AND THOUGHTS:

17 out of 24 correct = ~70% Accurate

Ok, so maybe it wasn't my best year predicting the Oscars, but I think I did pretty well overall! A fairly average score for this kind of thing. I'm proud to have got all the shorts categories, and to have got Best Picture correct! But I'm also disappointed for not getting costume or documentary right. There's always next year! Thanks for reading - I look forward to sharing my predictions next season!