Despite 2020 being an absolute dumpster fire of a year, with movie theaters being open for maybe half the year, and the latter part at limited capacity, it wouldn't have seemed outside the realm of possibility to outright cancel the Oscars this year. But looking over the nominees, honestly, this is one of the strongest collection of films in a long time! Below, check out my predictions in each category, as well as my personal ranking of each film. I was able to watch every nominee this year, so by reading this blog, you just might win your virtual office Oscar pool!
BEST PICTUREMy Personal Ranking:
1. Minari
2. Sound of Metal
3. The Father
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Promising Young Woman
6. Judas and the Black Messiah
7. Nomadland
8. Mank
I think this is a two-way race. Minari and Nomadland seem like the frontrunners here, with Trial of the Chicago 7 just a little behind. Mank may have the most nominations but it's the least lovable - it's really only appealing to movie nerds. The rest are all fantastic films with wide appeal. Nomadland, the "unofficial" frontrunner this year, has been a beast this awards season, picking up Best Motion Picture at the Golden Globes and at BAFTA (the British Academy Awards).
Minari could follow the same trajectory as Moonlight for a win, though. It's the little A24 "movie that could", and it's a lot more of a crowd pleaser than Nomadland, which could give it an edge considering the Academy's preferential ballot where voters rank the movies (so not just #1 votes are counted). Plus in a year with anti-Asian hate on the rise, it could win, but I'm not getting my hopes up too much. I'd be overjoyed to be wrong!
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
2. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
3. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
4. David Fincher, Mank
5. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
I Predict: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
I'd be shocked if anyone else won. There's so much buzz around Chloe Zhao winning, being both an Asian and a woman in a category that tends to be a bunch of old white guys. But also Nomadland was directed amazingly well, getting first-rate performances from a slew of non-actors. It looks gorgeous and with Zhao's star power on the rise with an upcoming Marvel blockbuster The Eternals, I think she has this award in the bag.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
My Personal Ranking:
1. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
3. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
4. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
I Predict: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
This is a stacked race, but I think Carey Mulligan will win her first Oscar for the fantastic revenge movie Promising Young Woman. Considering all the nominations the film got, and how it all centers around her performance, I'm predicting her to win, but really it's anyone's game! I could make a case for all these performers, although I'm unsure the voters would want to "double dip" on Frances McDormand again after her win for Three Billboards a few years ago; same with Viola Davis, despite winning the SAG award.
Look out for Andra Day for the upset, since her portrayal of Billie Holiday is amazing (I'd totally see her in concert!), and Vanessa Kirby had a harrowing breakout performance with Pieces of a Woman as well.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
My Personal Ranking:
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
My Personal Ranking:
1. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Steven Yeun, Minari
4. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Gary Oldman, Mank
I Predict: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Although I don't think it's the strongest performance of the bunch (Riz Ahmed, Hopkins, and Steven Yeun were all brilliant), I think this one will go to Chadwick Boseman mostly to commemorate his death and reward his overall body of work he left behind at a young age. That's not to say it's undeserving, but I think the meta-narrative behind the scenes will definitely push him over the edge for the win.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
My Personal Ranking:
1. Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
2. Olivia Colman, The Father
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
I Predict: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
First of all, it's hilarious to me that Glenn Close is nominated for both an Oscar and a Razzie award for the same performance! That controversy alone makes me count her out. Everyone else is in play though.
Seyfried has youth on her side, and actress awards tend to skew younger. Maria Bakalova is also a new face, and a breakout actress who created one of the most memorable movie moments of the year with Rudy Giuliani. Olivia Colman is the "safe" choice since she is a previous winner and gives a solid dramatic performance. But I'm going with my personal favorite, even though that's usually a recipe for disaster. Yuh-Jung Youn, playing the eccentric grandmother in Minari, is impossible to not like!
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
I Predict: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Even Lakeith Stanfield himself is confused why he's in this category - I mean, he's literally the lead actor of the movie... But either way, despite both delivering stunning performances in Judas and the Black Messiah, I think it's Daniel Kaluuya's to lose here, since he's been nabbing tons of the predictive awards and it's definitely the more "showy" of the two.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
My Personal Ranking:
1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
3. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Even Lakeith Stanfield himself is confused why he's in this category - I mean, he's literally the lead actor of the movie... But either way, despite both delivering stunning performances in Judas and the Black Messiah, I think it's Daniel Kaluuya's to lose here, since he's been nabbing tons of the predictive awards and it's definitely the more "showy" of the two.
Sacha Baron Cohen was just lucky to be nominated honestly, and I think Leslie Odom Jr. as Sam Cooke will win for a later category. I would welcome a Paul Raci upset since Sound of Metal was one of my absolute favorite films last year, but Kaluuya has consistently delivered fantastic performances in everything from Get Out to Black Mirror to Queen and Slim, and it feels like it's his time.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I Predict: The Father
This one is tough. The easiest to eliminate is The White Tiger, which is just lucky to be nominated. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm could be a funny little upset in this race, but I feel like the nomination itself is the "win" for a comedy like that. That leaves it up in the air between The Father, Nomadland and One Night in Miami. I'm torn, and I want to go for Nomadland since it has the best Best Picture chances, but it's also pretty sparse on dialogue. The Father is adapted from a stage play and is more "verbose"; though the same could be argued for One Night in Miami, also based on a play. The Father is clearly beloved by the Academy though, and may not get a win anywhere else, so I'm predicting it here.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I Predict: Promising Young Woman
This is a STACKED category! All five are strong contenders, with Best Picture nominations. But the screenplay categories in the recent past have gone to the slightly more "offbeat" movies like Get Out, Jojo Rabbit, or Black Klansman that may not have the consensus support to nab Best Picture, but infuses a clever mix of comedy, drama, and horror. Promising Young Woman pulls off that exact balancing act, although if Minari wins Best Picture like I'm predicting, it could very well win here as well.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
I Predict: Nomadland
If Mank was shot on film and not digital, it could have won this category, but it has that gross Netflix gloss to it. Hypocritically to what I just said, I think Nomadland will win even though it was also shot digitally... but it doesn't LOOK digital. The film was shot almost entirely with natural light, beautifully capturing America's natural landscapes.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
My Personal Ranking:
1. The Father
2. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3. Nomadland
4. One Night in Miami
5. The White Tiger
This one is tough. The easiest to eliminate is The White Tiger, which is just lucky to be nominated. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm could be a funny little upset in this race, but I feel like the nomination itself is the "win" for a comedy like that. That leaves it up in the air between The Father, Nomadland and One Night in Miami. I'm torn, and I want to go for Nomadland since it has the best Best Picture chances, but it's also pretty sparse on dialogue. The Father is adapted from a stage play and is more "verbose"; though the same could be argued for One Night in Miami, also based on a play. The Father is clearly beloved by the Academy though, and may not get a win anywhere else, so I'm predicting it here.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
My Personal Ranking:
1. Promising Young Woman
2. Minari
3. Sound of Metal
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
This is a STACKED category! All five are strong contenders, with Best Picture nominations. But the screenplay categories in the recent past have gone to the slightly more "offbeat" movies like Get Out, Jojo Rabbit, or Black Klansman that may not have the consensus support to nab Best Picture, but infuses a clever mix of comedy, drama, and horror. Promising Young Woman pulls off that exact balancing act, although if Minari wins Best Picture like I'm predicting, it could very well win here as well.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
My Personal Ranking:
1. News of the World
2. Nomadland
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. Mank
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7
If Mank was shot on film and not digital, it could have won this category, but it has that gross Netflix gloss to it. Hypocritically to what I just said, I think Nomadland will win even though it was also shot digitally... but it doesn't LOOK digital. The film was shot almost entirely with natural light, beautifully capturing America's natural landscapes.
COSTUME DESIGN
My Personal Ranking:
1. Emma
2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
3. Mulan
4. Mank
5. Pinocchio
I never know what to choose for some of these "below the line" categories, but Ma Rainey had some fantastic period detail in its costumes.
FILM EDITING
My Personal Ranking:
1. The Father
2. Sound of Metal
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Nomadland
I don't get why Nomadland is on here, but the others all have really interesting uses of editing. The Father SHOULD win for capturing the disorienting feeling of Alzheimer's in its editing, without losing the audience's attention. But Trial of the Chicago 7 has that big riot set piece and it balances out a crap-ton of characters without losing the narrative. If it wins anything, I think this is the category, but watch out for Sound of Metal.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
My Personal Ranking:
1. Pinocchio
2. Hillbilly Elegy
3. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. Emma
5. Mank
This category usually goes hand in hand with making movie stars unrecognizable: Christian Bale as Dick Cheney, Gary Oldman as Churchill, Meryl as Thatcher, etc. So I think this is coming down to Hillbilly Elegy and Ma Rainey. This is my most last-minute prediction change-up, but the momentum seems to be more with Ma Rainey, for turning Viola Davis into the gold-toothed, mascara-drenched blues icon.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
My Personal Ranking:
1. Mank
2. The Father
3. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. News of the World
5. Tenet
I Predict: Mank
Recreating old Hollywood tends to win this award (see: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Aviator, La La Land).
ORIGINAL SCORE
My Personal Ranking:
I Predict: Soul, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, & Jon Batiste
This one is a "given," especially since it's like two scores in one. For the "soul" world, Reznor and Ross do their thing making weird electronic sounds, and for the human world, Jon Batiste brings on the jazz.
ORIGINAL SONG
My Personal Ranking:
1. "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest
2. "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah
3. "Io Si (Seen)" from The Life Ahead
4. "Hear My Voice" from The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami
Like I wrote up above, I think this will win best song to award Leslie Odom Jr. for a job well done despite not winning Best Actor. Plus, the fact that he's playing such an icon of music like Sam Cooke doesn't hurt.
BEST SOUND
My Personal Ranking:
1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Soul
4. News of the World
5. Greyhound
I mean... "sound" is in the title! And damn it, this movie absolutely deserves it. Probably some of the best use of sound I've EVER heard in a film, capturing a musician's gradual hearing loss intensely accurately.
VISUAL EFFECTS
My Personal Ranking
1. Love and Monsters
2. Tenet
3. Mulan
4. The Midnight Sky
5. The One and Only Ivan
Christopher Nolan mind-benders Interstellar and Inception won this category before, and I have to imagine his latest will again. Tenet has some amazing use of time travel visuals that I've never quite seen before, even if the movie was too confusing for its own good.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
My Personal Ranking:
1. Soul
2. Onward
3. Over the Moon
4. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
5. Wolfwalkers
I Predict: Soul
The single most obvious win of the night right here. Pixar's latest is sure to win Pete Docter his third Oscar after Up and Inside Out.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
My Personal Ranking:
1. My Octopus Teacher
2. Collective
3. Crip Camp
4. The Mole Agent
5. Time
I'm torn on this one. Collective is an enticing pick considering it also nabbed a nomination for Foreign Language film, but that could just be a red herring. I think Crip Camp has a certain X-factor to get a win. It's an inspirational story and that's usually what wins this category. And it doesn't hurt that it was produced by the Obamas, which certainly helped American Factory win this category last year. But my gut is re-directing me toward My Octopus Teacher, which won the Producers Guild Award, and features some amazing and dangerous nature footage, which helped Free Solo to a win.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
My Personal Ranking:
1. Collective (Romania)
2. Another Round (Denmark)
3. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
4. Better Days (Hong Kong)
5. The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
This has to win, right? Its director shocked Oscar pundits everywhere by sneaking into the fifth Best Director slot. This is as much of a lock as you can get.
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
My Personal Ranking:
1. "Opera"
2. "If Anything Happens I Love You"
3. "Genius Loci"
4. "Burrow"
5. "Yes-People"
I Predict: "If Anything Happens I Love You"
My favorite of the bunch is "Opera", but Netflix's "If Anything Happens I Love You" is the heartstring-puller which almost always wins this category.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
My Personal Ranking:
1. "Hunger Ward"
2. "A Love Song for Latasha"
3. "Do Not Split"
4. "Colette"
5. "A Concerto is a Conversation"
Damn... most of these shorts were really hard to sit through. "Hunger Ward" is about a wing of a hospital in the continually-bombed country Yemen filled with starving children on the brink of death. It's upsetting to watch but the message it sends is undeniably affecting. If short films involve animals or children, they tend to win, so a call to action to save starving kids seems a surefire winner in this category, similar to previous winners "Period. End of Sentence.", "The White Helmets", and "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone". But maybe I'm wrong - most Oscar prediction sites are betting more on "A Love Song for Latasha" or "A Concerto is a Conversation".
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
My Personal Ranking:
1. "Feeling Through"
2. "Two Distant Strangers"
3. "White Eye"
4. "The Present"
5. "The Letter Room"
This was the strongest collection of live action shorts I think I've seen at the Oscars! With the exception of "The Letter Room", I'd be happy if any of them won, but "Two Distant Strangers" is just too relevant right now. It's essentially a Groundhog Day-esque story about police brutality, and it's just an incredible short! I think its closest competition is "Feeling Through," a heartwarming story about a homeless youth connecting with a deaf and blind man in NYC, especially since "cute" movies tend to win here, like "Sing" or "The Silent Child" (which also focused on deaf people).
I will update this post after Oscar Sunday to see how accurate my predictions were! There are sure to be surprises!
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