BEST PICTURE
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Parasite
I Predict: Parasite
If Parasite wins Best Picture, it will mark the first time a foreign film ever wins the big prize at the Oscars! This is sort of a long-shot pick, but its big win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards shows it has a lot of industry support. As opposed to the other front runners in this race, it doesn't seem to have as many controversies, and with the Academy's preferential voting system (where voters "rank" each movie rather than vote for their single favorite), I think it holds a shot.
The movies to watch out for, I'd say, are 1917, which won the Golden Globe for best drama, the BAFTA for Best Picture, and the Producers Guild Award, and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, which won the Golden Globe for best "comedy" and the top prize at the Critics Choice Awards. I think any of these three films are in the running, but I just have that gut feeling about Parasite!
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
I Predict: Sam Mendes, 1917
In recent years, we've often seen the Best Director award split from Best Picture, awarding a film that was a technical challenge to achieve (such as Gravity and Life of Pi). 1917 definitely seems like the most technically difficult film. Shot to resemble one long continuous take - like a live-action Call of Duty - 1917 immerses you in World War I in a way no other film has before. There are a number of heavy-hitters in this category, but I think Mendes has this one!
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cynthia Ervio, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
I Predict: Renée Zellweger, Judy
I have a feeling all four of the major acting categories are a "lock" at this point. In regards to Best Actress, Zellweger has been winning every predictive award, including the Golden Globe and SAG Award, for her portrayal of Judy Garland. Add in the fact that Garland herself never won an Oscar, and I can see how this could also double as a "spiritual" win for the deceased Hollywood legend.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
I Predict: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
After Jared Leto's underwhelming turn as the Clown Prince of Crime in Suicide Squad, Joaquin Phoenix delivered a performance that, in my opinion, surpasses even Heath Ledger's Oscar-winning portrayal of the character. Joker may have its detractors, but with 11 nominations, more than any other film this year, the Academy clearly loves the film, and Phoenix's unhinged performance is what the entire movie rests on.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robie, Bombshell
I Predict: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Laura Dern's character in Marriage Story, a divorce lawyer who escalates all the problems in her client's relationship, is very reminiscent of some of her other uptight characters in Big Little Lies and Enlightenment. She's realistically nasty at times, spinning any story to her best advantage. It's a great role for the currently Oscar-less Dern, who seems at the right time in her career to get this award.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
I Predict: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Although I personally don't think his performance is Oscar-worthy, Brad Pitt is a total badass in Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood and, like with Dern, it seems "time" for him to earn an Oscar. He won the Golden Globe, SAG Award, and the BAFTA, so this seems like a solid lock for a win.
(Side note: Willem Dafoe being snubbed in this category for The Lighthouse is inexcusable).
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
The Two Popes
Joker
I Predict: Jojo Rabbit
I consider this to be my riskiest prediction. Little Women stands a good chance to win solely based on Greta Gerwig having many fans angry over her snub in Best Director, Joker could take the prize due to its dark and poignant take on the Batman character, and The Irishman has a lot of love as well. But the screenplay awards tend to skew to the much-loved "offbeat" movies each year like Get Out, Birdman, and Black Klansman. This year I think the clever anti-war satire Jojo Rabbit has that kind of sensibility to pull off a win in this category.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1917
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Parasite
Knives Out
I Predict: Parasite
This is a tough one as well. For me this completely comes down to Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood and Parasite. I'm going with Parasite because I don't think a movie can win Best Picture without either a win in Director or Screenplay. But seeing as Tarantino is so well liked for his screenplays, it's a very tough call to make.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
I Predict: 1917
This is an easy one. 1917 has some of the most intricate and beautiful camera work ever seen in a war film, and I'd be shocked if anything else won.
COSTUME DESIGN
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Little Women
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
I Predict: Little Women
Well, it's the only real costume drama on the list, so I guess I'll go for Little Women. How movies like Rocketman, Downton Abbey and Aladdin didn't make it into this category while The Irishman did makes little sense to me.
FILM EDITING
The Irishman
Ford v Ferrari
Parasite
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
I Predict: Ford v Ferrari
Typically the editing award goes to an action-heavy film, such as Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Gravity. If that tradition continues, Ford v Ferrari seems like the only logical winner, as its competition are edited more as traditional dramas. And if you ask me... The Irishman could've used some more editing... way too long!
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
I Predict: Bombshell
I had to do a double-take when the nominations were released... five nominees! Every year since I can remember the Makeup and Hairstyling category was cut short to only three spots. I'm glad to see the competition open up, although it seems clear that Bombshell will take it home. Flawlessly turning John Lithgow into Roger Ailles and Charlize Theron into Meghan Kelly, Bombshell totally deserves to win this one!
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
The Irishman
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
I Predict: Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Like with Original Screenplay, I think this award is between Hollywood and Parasite. Parasite may not seem a likely winner, but the production team notoriously built the entire main house set from nothing. But what may one-up Parasite is the fact that Quentin Tarantino completely transformed entire streets of Los Angeles back to their 1960s glory. In a way, the production design of Once Upon a Time is the best part of the movie, so I'm predicting it'll win here.
ORIGINAL SCORE
1917, Thomas Newman
Joker, Hildur Guðnadóttir
Little Women, Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story, Randy Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams
I Predict: Joker, Hildur Guðnadóttir
This one I'm torn between 1917 and Joker. However, Joker has won more of the predictive awards, and Hildur Guðnadóttir has been making a steady name for herself lately with her work on HBO's Chernobyl and Sicario 2. But Thomas Newman has been nominated13 times with no wins, so voters may want to see him get the award as well.
ORIGINAL SONG
"I'm Standing With You," Breakthrough
"Into the Unknown," Frozen II
"Stand Up," Harriet
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," Rocketman
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away," Toy Story 4
I Predict:"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," Rocketman
I don't know about this one. I can see Frozen II getting in because it's the only nominee that gets much air time on the radio, and "Stand Up" is a powerful anthem, but to make up for the lack of love Rocketman received, and to honor Elton John, I think this song from the biographical musical could take home the award.
SOUND EDITING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Joker
I Predict: 1917
Like I say every year: I have NO IDEA what I'm predicting with these sound categories. I literally just go with what I suppose to be the loudest.
SOUND MIXING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Ad Astra
Joker
I Predict: 1917
I'm doubling down on 1917 because it's a loud, well-liked war movie, like previous winner Dunkirk.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Irishman
1917
I Predict: The Lion King
Maybe I'm blinded by the fact that I actually enjoyed this movie and think it deserves to win, but The Lion King has some of the most photo-realistic CG animals I've ever seen in a movie. If it's not an outer space drama like First Man, Blade Runner 2049, Interstellar, or Gravity, typically this category will fall into the lap of fluffy animals, like The Jungle Book or Life of Pi, so hopefully it wins over the more "prestigious" 1917!
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
I Predict: Toy Story 4
This is probably the only nominee that ended up making various "top ten of the year" critics lists, so I'll go the safe route and pick Toy Story 4, the continuation of Pixar's existential toy comedies. But it's still open: the 2D-animated Klaus racked up the most Annie Awards (for animated films), Missing Link won the Golden Globe, and How to Train Your Dragon 3 is the last chance for the Oscars to honor that series.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
The Edge of Democracy
Honeyland
For Sama
The Cave
I Predict: Honeyland
This category is a three-way tie for me, but I'm trying to read the tea leaves in the nominations: Honeyland is the only doc also nominated in another category - Best Foreign Language Film. Not to mention it's incredible and I recommend you all log on to Hulu (or steal your friends' password) and watch it! But I'm definitely watching out for American Factory, the Obama-produced doc about a GM plant taken over by a Chinese company, and For Sama, an intense first-person account from a mother in Syria.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
South Korea, Parasite
Spain, Pain and Glory
North Macedonia, Honeyland
France, Les Misérables
Poland, Corpus Christi
I Predict: Parasite
This at least guarantees I'll get ONE point on my Oscar predictions! It's so obviously the winner here it's not even worth writing about!
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
"Dcera (Daughter)"
"Hair Love"
"Kitbull"
"Memorable"
"Sister"
I Predict: "Hair Love"
All of these shorts I found for free on various places on the internet, and you should do yourself a favor and check them out! I think this category is between Pixar's "Kitbull," about the friendship between a stray cat and an abused pit bull (yup, get tissues ready), or Sony Animation's "Hair Love," which turns from cute to "right in the feels" very quick!
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
"In the Absence"
"Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)"
"Life Overtakes Me"
"St. Louis Superman"
"Walk Run Cha-Cha"
I Predict: "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)"
While there's one short that is impossible to track down, of the four I've seen "Learning to Skateboard" seems like the clear winner here. This short, about a group of young girls learning to read, write and SKATEBOARD in a society where you can get killed for that kind of thing is badass and inspiring.
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
"Brotherhood"
"Nefta Football Club"
"The Neighbors' Window"
"Saria"
"A Sister"
I Predict: "Brotherhood"
All of the live action shorts this year are fantastic, making this hard to choose! But here's my reasoning for this prediction: Nefta Football Club is a dark comedy, so it may be too "light" to win. The Neighbor's Window, a sort of mid-life crisis spin on Rear Window, is a strong candidate as the only English-language nominee, though its ending is a bit too saccharine. Saria is a powerful true story about a group of Mexican orphans escaping, but its ending might be a little too abrupt for maximum impact. Finally, A Sister is another intense "phone call" short similar to previous winner The Phone Call and last year's nom Mother.
I'm choosing Brotherhood because it's not only the most beautifully-shot nominee, but its story feels the most whole and fleshed out. It's about the tension between a Tunisian father and son, when his son brings home a Syrian refugee wearing a full-body hijab. It's a shot in the dark, but it just feels like a winner!
I will update this post after Oscar Sunday to see how accurate my predictions were! There are sure to be surprises!
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