While technically the movie "summer season" has already started, I'm still going to post my annual box office predictions, albeit a little late on arrival. Basically, I attempt to guess which blockbusters will rake in the most American coin; I don't do worldwide intake because movies are released at different times in different countries. The rules reward accuracy more than getting the exact right movies, so it's not enough to get the Top Ten, my goal is to get the Top Ten in the right order. This year was particularly difficult because there's not nearly as many sure-fire hits as last year, and it's anybody's guess as to how the season will play out! Below is the points system, if you want to play along and attempt to beat my "score" at the end of August:
- Pick 1-10 movies you think will top the US summer box office (May through August)
- 13 points for getting 1 or 10 exactly correct
- 10 points for getting 2-9 exactly correct
- 7 points if movie was one spot away
- 5 points if movie was two spots away
- 3 points if movie was anywhere in the top ten
- 1 point for each dark horse (pick three)
My Picks:
1. Captain America: Civil War (May 6)
It seems like a sure thing at this point that Civil War will be the top film of the summer, but you never know - we all said the same thing about Age of Ultron, and Jurassic World took a huge bite out of their competition. Yes, I know, my puns sicken me as well. Civil War is basically like Avengers 2.5, so it's going to make a crap-ton of money regardless.
2. Suicide Squad (August 5)
Suicide Squad is a little harder to place because it both comes out in August, so it has less time to make money, and it's also skewing to an older crowd by focusing on the villains. But that "dark" angle didn't stop the Nolan Bat-films from being huge, and seemingly everyone and their mother is curious as to how Jared Leto will handle the Joker (impossibly taking up the mantle left by Heath Ledger), and about Harley Quinn's big screen introduction. The trailers are great as well, so unless superhero fatigue sets in, I think Suicide Squad will do just fine.
3. Finding Dory (June 17)
Pixar is always a "safe" choice for the top three. And Finding Nemo is one of the most beloved of their films; kids and adults alike are going to want to see this, especially if early reviews are positive. Pixar is always a "safe" choice for the top three. And Finding Nemo is- wait...I've already told you this? Sorry, my short term memory's not that great.
4. X-Men: Apocalypse (May 27)
Fox wants to keep up with the superhero game, and the X-Men franchise is really the only card they have left after fumbling Fantastic Four in a spectacular fashion last year. With Jennifer Lawrence bringing her star power, the good will from First Class and Days of Future Past, and the recent trailer that hints at Wolverine's involvement, I'd say X-Men: Apocalypse will, again, make a nice chunk of change, despite its lead villain looking like a Power Ranger character.
5. The Secret Life of Pets (July 8)
There's a lot of pet-lovers out there, and this animated film - releasing just after the coveted July 4th weekend slot - is catering to that huge demographic. Like Finding Dory, the animated films that do best at the box office have to attract parents just as much as the kids, and with the all-star voice talent and a great, simple high concept ad campaign, The Secret Life of Pets will really scratch that itch behind the ears of the American moviegoing public.
6. Ghostbusters (July 15)
Despite having one of the least-liked trailers in Youtube history, I think curiosity will get the best of people. Whether or not the trailer worked for you, everyone will want to have an opinion on the new Ghostbusters. Don't listen to all the pissed fanboys online - you know this will make a ton of money, cringe-worthy jokes and all.
7. Jason Bourne (July 29)
Matt Damon returns to the role he was BOURNE to play. Yup, I just lost respect for myself with that one. Anyway, Jason Bourne is pretty much my generation's James Bond, and after the forgettable Bourne Legacy with Jeremy Renner (does anybody even remember that?), this should be a nice return to form for the franchise.
8. Central Intelligence (June 17)
Usually one straight comedy gets into the top ten, and Central Intelligence appears to be it. The Rock and Kevin Hart are two of the biggest names in Hollywood at the moment, and every time I see the trailer for this in theaters, people laugh out loud. I'd say this movie's chances of success are rock solid.
9. Independence Day: Resurgence (June 24)
Nostalgia will get the best of people and this 20-year sequel to Independence Day will probably do well, at least in its opening weekend. It would definitely be higher on the list if Will Smith reprised his role as well, but we'll have to make due with Goldblum.
10. Star Trek Beyond (July 22)
With Star Wars stealing its thunder, I don't think Star Trek Beyond is going to make astronomical numbers, but enough perhaps to crack into the top ten. Director Justin Lin managed to turn the Fast and Furious franchise into the behemoth it is today, so maybe he can rev the engines of the franchise that J.J. left behind.
Dark Horses:
ALICE: THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS - Kids who shop at Hot Topic and hippies tripping on LSD will definitely come out to see this one, but I'm not as sure about its wide appeal.
TMNT: OUT OF THE SHADOWS - The first movie just barely got into the top ten of the summer (albeit because it was released in August), and I don't think its sequel will outdo the original. But the trailers look like they're having more fun than the first time around, and they're using a lot of characters from the original cartoon, which may drum up the numbers.
WARCRAFT - This could get the Lord of the Rings crowd, but I don't think even gamers who are fans of the franchise are that excited for this one. Looks like Avatar with orcs; not that that's a bad thing, but that's not much of a "hook" to get general audiences into theaters.
So that's about it! I'll tally it all up once it's over, and see how wildly wrong I was! If you want to play along, leave your predictions in the comments section!
My Picks:
1. Captain America: Civil War (May 6)
It seems like a sure thing at this point that Civil War will be the top film of the summer, but you never know - we all said the same thing about Age of Ultron, and Jurassic World took a huge bite out of their competition. Yes, I know, my puns sicken me as well. Civil War is basically like Avengers 2.5, so it's going to make a crap-ton of money regardless.
2. Suicide Squad (August 5)
Suicide Squad is a little harder to place because it both comes out in August, so it has less time to make money, and it's also skewing to an older crowd by focusing on the villains. But that "dark" angle didn't stop the Nolan Bat-films from being huge, and seemingly everyone and their mother is curious as to how Jared Leto will handle the Joker (impossibly taking up the mantle left by Heath Ledger), and about Harley Quinn's big screen introduction. The trailers are great as well, so unless superhero fatigue sets in, I think Suicide Squad will do just fine.
3. Finding Dory (June 17)
Pixar is always a "safe" choice for the top three. And Finding Nemo is one of the most beloved of their films; kids and adults alike are going to want to see this, especially if early reviews are positive. Pixar is always a "safe" choice for the top three. And Finding Nemo is- wait...I've already told you this? Sorry, my short term memory's not that great.
4. X-Men: Apocalypse (May 27)
Fox wants to keep up with the superhero game, and the X-Men franchise is really the only card they have left after fumbling Fantastic Four in a spectacular fashion last year. With Jennifer Lawrence bringing her star power, the good will from First Class and Days of Future Past, and the recent trailer that hints at Wolverine's involvement, I'd say X-Men: Apocalypse will, again, make a nice chunk of change, despite its lead villain looking like a Power Ranger character.
5. The Secret Life of Pets (July 8)
There's a lot of pet-lovers out there, and this animated film - releasing just after the coveted July 4th weekend slot - is catering to that huge demographic. Like Finding Dory, the animated films that do best at the box office have to attract parents just as much as the kids, and with the all-star voice talent and a great, simple high concept ad campaign, The Secret Life of Pets will really scratch that itch behind the ears of the American moviegoing public.
6. Ghostbusters (July 15)
Despite having one of the least-liked trailers in Youtube history, I think curiosity will get the best of people. Whether or not the trailer worked for you, everyone will want to have an opinion on the new Ghostbusters. Don't listen to all the pissed fanboys online - you know this will make a ton of money, cringe-worthy jokes and all.
7. Jason Bourne (July 29)
Matt Damon returns to the role he was BOURNE to play. Yup, I just lost respect for myself with that one. Anyway, Jason Bourne is pretty much my generation's James Bond, and after the forgettable Bourne Legacy with Jeremy Renner (does anybody even remember that?), this should be a nice return to form for the franchise.
8. Central Intelligence (June 17)
Usually one straight comedy gets into the top ten, and Central Intelligence appears to be it. The Rock and Kevin Hart are two of the biggest names in Hollywood at the moment, and every time I see the trailer for this in theaters, people laugh out loud. I'd say this movie's chances of success are rock solid.
9. Independence Day: Resurgence (June 24)
Nostalgia will get the best of people and this 20-year sequel to Independence Day will probably do well, at least in its opening weekend. It would definitely be higher on the list if Will Smith reprised his role as well, but we'll have to make due with Goldblum.
10. Star Trek Beyond (July 22)
With Star Wars stealing its thunder, I don't think Star Trek Beyond is going to make astronomical numbers, but enough perhaps to crack into the top ten. Director Justin Lin managed to turn the Fast and Furious franchise into the behemoth it is today, so maybe he can rev the engines of the franchise that J.J. left behind.
Dark Horses:
ALICE: THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS - Kids who shop at Hot Topic and hippies tripping on LSD will definitely come out to see this one, but I'm not as sure about its wide appeal.
TMNT: OUT OF THE SHADOWS - The first movie just barely got into the top ten of the summer (albeit because it was released in August), and I don't think its sequel will outdo the original. But the trailers look like they're having more fun than the first time around, and they're using a lot of characters from the original cartoon, which may drum up the numbers.
WARCRAFT - This could get the Lord of the Rings crowd, but I don't think even gamers who are fans of the franchise are that excited for this one. Looks like Avatar with orcs; not that that's a bad thing, but that's not much of a "hook" to get general audiences into theaters.
So that's about it! I'll tally it all up once it's over, and see how wildly wrong I was! If you want to play along, leave your predictions in the comments section!
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