This is one of the most controversial Oscar seasons I've ever remembered seeing. The lack of diversity in the nominees (not a single non-white actor in the 20 acting category slots) has a bunch of people riled up, not the least of whom are Will and Jada Pinkett Smith, who, let's face it, are probably bitter Will's work in Concussion didn't get any love. I totally see where this backlash is coming from, but for me personally, if you look at who was nominated as opposed to who wasn't, I think save for maybe 1 or 2 exceptions, all the nominees were completely deserving of the Academy's votes. In other words, I blame more the film industry as a whole for its lack of diversity than I do the Oscars - let's not arbitrarily vote for movies just because black people are in it. Far less people are talking about the bigger picture and are quick to point a finger at the Oscar voters for being a bunch of whitewashed racists, when this whole argument is stemming around the exclusion of the same 3-4 movies. If you want to fix this problem, lobby the film studios, go and actually see IN THE THEATER movies like Dope and Compton and Creed, and then we'll see more of a change.
The only major issue I have with the Oscars is the fact that there are only 8 movies nominated for Best Picture, when up to 10 are allowed - what's up with that? Those extra 2 films could have made way for a movie like Creed or Straight Outta Compton (or Beasts of No Nation which was entirely snubbed). So this weird cloud of exclusion has been cast over the Awards season this year, but that only makes me that much more excited to see how Chris Rock handles his hosting duties! And on that note, here are my predictions for which whiteys will take home the Oscar this year:
* = Haven't seen it yet!
BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
I Predict: Spotlight
This is by far the most difficult Best Picture prediction I've experienced since starting this blog. Spotlight was the absolute clear front-runner in January, but since then both The Revenant and The Big Short have been nabbing some of the predictive awards. The Big Short won the Producer's Guild Award, and The Revenant took home the Director's Guild, BAFTA, and Golden Globe Awards. I'm still going with Spotlight though - it tells an important, true story, and it gives a fascinating inside look at the journalistic process.
I can't believe I got this right. I was so expecting Morgan Freeman to say "The Revenant." But when I was choosing my predictions, I just had that gut feeling. There was no other film I could visualize winning the top prize, and luckily I was right!
BEST DIRECTOR
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
I Predict: Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
I so badly want George Miller to win. He more than likely won't though. After the DGA awards results, I think Iñárritu will take home his second Oscar in a row. But I want to be wrong! Come on Academy, spread the wealth a little!
Although I was silently praying for Miller to win, you can't deny that The Revenant must have been one hell of a difficult movie to direct!
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
I Predict: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
This is a pretty incredible comeback story! Stallone was nominated for Best Actor in 1977 playing Rocky Balboa, and all these years later, he's nominated for the same role in 2016. His performance in Creed was shockingly soulful, and he totally deserves a shot at the title (if he wins let's just hope he thanks his director this time).
Stallone was robbed! ROBBED!
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
I Predict: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Like Matthew McConaughey winning for Dallas Buyers Club, where his year-long momentum earned him the Oscar (True Detective and Mud), I think Vikander's good-will from Ex Machina, which also earned a Best Original Screenplay nomination, will carry over into her chances for Supporting Actress. She delivered two of the best performances of the year, and her work in The Danish Girl is stunning! I'd be disappointed if anyone else won.
2015 was the Year of Vikander!
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
I Predict: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
If DiCaprio doesn't win the Oscar this year, I don't think he ever will. He put his body through absolute hell just for our amusement - including subjecting himself to freezing temperatures, spending hours in a makeup chair every morning, eating raw fish, being thrown around by a bear...just give him the damn statue!
We all knew this was coming. An overdue award for Leo!
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years*
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
I Predict: Brie Larson, Room
There could be an upset with Blanchett, but I think this category has Brie Larson's name all over it. It also makes up for her snubbing a few years ago with Short Term 12.
Larson will need to make room on her mantle for her well-deserved Oscar!
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Anomalisa
Boy and the World*
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
I Predict: Inside Out
This is the most obvious win of the night. It's the only film on the list also nominated for its screenplay (not even Charlie Kaufman's Anomalisa did that), so it'd be idiotic to predict anything else!
You didn't have to peek inside the heads of the voters to see this one coming.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
I Predict: The Revenant
If he wins, this would mark Emmanuel Lubezki's third Oscar win in a row (after Gravity and Birdman)! It would be sad seeing Roger Deakins lose yet again (he's been nominated 13 times and never won once), but I think this would be a deserving win. The Revenant doesn't look like any movie I've ever seen before, and beautifully captures the brutal environments of the West.
Three in a row!
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Embrace of the Serpent (Columbia)*
Mustang (France)*
Son of Saul (Hungary)*
Theeb (Jordan)*
A War (Denmark)*
I Predict: Son of Saul (Hungary)
Unfortunately I wasn't able to catch up with any of the nominated foreign films this year, but the Holocaust drama Son of Saul has been getting a huge heap of praise from critics, and seems to be the frontrunner, but you never know with these categories.
I'll be watching and reviewing this one very soon! Sounds like it might be a difficult watch though, based on its subject matter.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
I Predict: The Big Short
This is a particularly difficult category this year (weirdly absent is Aaron Sorkin's script for Steve Jobs), but I'd have to give it to The Big Short. Adam McKay managed to take highly difficult economic concepts and deliver them in funny, irreverent ways (like the "Jenga" scene pictured above). Having read the novels for both The Martian and Room, I think the screenplays are so close to the original material that they don't deserve to win.
I can't wait to see the trailer for Anchorman 3 begin with "From Academy-Award Winner Adam McKay"
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
I Predict: Spotlight
I'm very happy to see Ex Machina, Inside Out, and Straight Outta Compton get nods, but I think the clear winner here is Spotlight. Since it has the best chance of winning Best Picture, it's a no-brainer, and on top of that, the script, like The Big Short, manages to condense a complicated story filled with journalistic jargon and make it both palatable and engrossing.
A movie about journalism wins the writing award - big shocker!
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
"Earned It" from Fifty Shades of Grey*
"Manta Ray" from Racing Extinction*
"Simple Song #3" from Youth*
"Til It Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground*
"Writing's on the Wall" from Spectre
I Predict: "Til It Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground*
Now that "See You Again" is out of the running, I think the most obvious choice here would be this song from Lady Gaga, from the documentary The Hunting Ground, about rape on college campuses. With both a powerful message and a big-name celebrity backing this track, I'd be surprised to see it lose. And it brings Gaga ever closer to the coveted EGOT.
After Lady Gaga's live performance...it seemed like it was in the bag...this was the biggest shock of the night! I'm one of the few people that LOVES "Writing's on the Wall" (on a pure musical level I enjoy it the most of the noms), but the message alone from Gaga's song seemed too relevant to lose. I mean, the VICE PRESIDENT introduced the damn thing!
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
I Predict: Mad Max: Fury Road
Although this category usually goes to a period piece (Great Gatsby, Lincoln, etc), the production design in Fury Road is nothing short of amazing. Every car, steering wheel, background character, and strange corner of Immortan Joe's Citadel is bursting with life and detail.
What a lovely production design!
COSTUME DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella*
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
I Predict: Carol
I learned last year with Alexandre Desplat that just because someone is nominated twice, that doesn't necessarily mean it will "split the vote." Costume Designer Sandy Powell (Far from Heaven, The Aviator) is nominated for both Carol and Cinderella, and I think she'll go home with an Oscar for either one of those. Although every "predictor" site has Mad Max winning this one, I'm hedging my bet on Carol.
I should've figured Mad Max would win; it was certainly one of the all-around best "designed" films of the year. Still, it's surprising Costume Design didn't go to a frilly period piece as it usually does.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy
Cartel Land*
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?*
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom*
I Predict: Amy
Musical documentaries have fared well recently at the Oscars (Searching for Sugarman, 20 Feet from Stardom), and with the unique "found footage" style of the film along with its awards show momentum, I think Amy is the film to beat here.
Not a huge surprise - another music doc for the win.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Body Team 12*
Chau, Beyond the Lines*
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah*
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness*
Last Day of Freedom*
I Predict: Body Team 12
I haven't seen any of the films in this category. I have no clue what I'm talking about, but Body Team 12 will win.
Admittedly, part of me went for Body Team 12 because I cynically thought maybe people wouldn't watch the shorts and would pick the first one that appeared alphabetically. But from what I've heard, A Girl in the River is by far the best of the doc shorts - I plan to check them out soon!
FILM EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I Predict: Mad Max: Fury Road
I think Mad Max will take home a number of the "technical" awards this year. Its editing was superb - I believe the "shotgun" scene (pictured above) is a masterclass of staging and editing action that should and probably will be taught in classrooms.
I imagine Fury Road was a beast in the editing room. I wouldn't have been upset with a Big Short upset though.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared*
The Revenant
I Predict: Mad Max: Fury Road
It's a very tough call between this and The Revenant, but I'll arbitrarily give it to Mad Max just because I have to pick one. Both had amazing make-up and hair; Tom Hardy's scalped-do is a marvel, and the sheer imagination behind Mad Max's war boys and Immortan Joe were also impressive.
I wonder if there's any L'Oréal in the Wasteland for Immortan Joe's flowing mane
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Carter Burwell, Carol
Jóhann Jóhansson, Sicario
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies
John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I Predict: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Although Morricone won an Honorary Oscar in 2007, none of his specific film scores have ever won an Oscar...until now that is. Tarantino notoriously never uses an original score, but he's used so many samples from Morricone's past works in his movies that he was willing to make an exception for the maestro - a decision that I believe will pay off with a gold statue.
While The Hateful Eight is far from Morricone's best score, this is definitely a deserved reward for a lifetime of amazing work!
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Bear Story*
Prologue*
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos*
World of Tomorrow
I Predict: Sanjay's Super Team
Never bet against Pixar.
Damn...it was another "Mr. Hublot" year and I didn't see it coming.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Ave Maria*
Day One*
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)*
Shok*
Stutterer*
I Predict: Ave Maria*
Again, I haven't caught up with most of the shorts this year, so this is as blind a blind guess can be.
I knew I'd get this wrong!
SOUND EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I Predict: Mad Max: Fury Road
I think Mad Max will sweep all the techie awards, although either The Revenant or Star Wars might sneak up in the sound categories. I'm always clueless as to these, so take this prediction with a grain of salt.
Vroom, Vroom...
SOUND MIXING
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I Predict: Mad Max: Fury Road
I don't have much technical knowledge of these sound categories, but it seems like every year the Sound Mixing Oscar is awarded to the most "musical" of the nominees, and Mad Max: Fury Road is filled with tribal war music and is practically edited like a symphony.
Even the Doof Warrior took a break from shredding to clap for the sound mixers.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I Predict: Mad Max: Fury Road
If The Martian can win anywhere, I'd say it's here, but I think Fury Road will yet again take home a statue for its amazing visual design. The combination of practical and CG effects is close to seamless (save for maybe that tornado sequence). The Academy might throw a bone to Star Wars here though, considering it made a billion dollars.
WOW! I was totally not expecting Ex Machina to come out of nowhere. By far the smallest of the nominees, it managed to pull off fantastic visual effects on a relatively low budget. Good for them!
That's all for now - after the Oscars I will post an updated blog highlighted with the official winners and my final tally. If you want to play along, leave your predictions in the comment section below!
FINAL TALLY: 17 out of 24
Predictably, this was one unpredictable Oscar night! Lots of out-of-nowhere wins and loses; I think the odds that someone guessed every category correct this year are astronomical. The highlight was definitely Chris Rock, who took on this tense "OscarsSoWhite" evening and made one hilarious riff after another. His segment in Compton, the girl scout cookie bit, and his monologue were all pretty damn funny! Best line: "If they nominated the host, I wouldn't get the job!" The Academy lucked out with Rock; I'm pretty sure he signed on way before all this controversy started, and he made it one of the most memorable hosting jobs I've seen yet (Ellen's selfie aside)!
So that's a wrap, folks. See you next season! I don't even want to know what chaos will ensue if it turns out to be all white nominees again.
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