Monday, April 28, 2014

Summer 2014 Box Office Predictions

(Pretend the fish is money and Toothless is a Hollywood producer)

It almost feels like summer's already started with Captain America: The Winter if May 2nd wasn't early enough. This summer is a little tough to predict because of all the sequels and superheroes - there's not one "original" movie on my list (not based off of another property).  I'm not sure how tired audiences will get of these action flicks, so maybe there will be a few surprises here and there.  But I've placed my bets and here they are.

So - if you want to play along, read the rules below and post in the comments section your predictions!  I'll tally it all up in September, based off of the domestic (not worldwide) gross for the summer season.  

- Pick 1-10 movies you think will top the summer box office (May through August)
- 13 points for getting 1 or 10 exactly correct
- 10 points for getting 2-9 exactly correct
- 7 points if movie was one spot away
- 5 points if movie was two spots away
- 3 points if movie was anywhere in the top ten
- 1 point for each dark horse (pick three)

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2

With pretty much no other competition this summer in animation, and a sequel to a massive hit that's grown even bigger with a TV show and a stage adaptation, I have a feeling this will be the biggest movie of the summer.

2. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Since this is the fourth movie in the franchise (and one where the last two weren't very well received), it might make less than the other films, but considering Mark Wahlberg's star power, I still think Age of Extinction will be a massive hit.

3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 

This was the toughest movie to predict just because I'm not sure if audiences will have Spider-Man sequel fatigue.  The Amazing Spider-Man, though a big hit, made the least amount of money of all the films.  But still, May 4th is always a huge weekend for these types of movies, and Sony has been advertising the fuck out of this.

4. Godzilla 

I'm sure internationally this movie will be huge, though I'm a little less certain of the domestic returns.  Still, with an amazing set of trailers and just the fact that it's everyone's favorite giant lizard I think Godzilla will do just fine.

5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

This is probably my personal most anticipated movie of the summer, and I'm sure it will make a ton of money.  Positive word of mouth made the first one a surprise hit, and again, the trailers thus far have been amazing.

6. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Similarly to Amazing Spider-Man 2, I think X-Men might suffer from sequelitis (First Class and Wolverine didn't do super-well), but I think the return of the original cast should bring its numbers up from previous entries.

7. Maleficent

With not many movies being marketed directly to younger audiences this summer, I think Maleficent will be another money-maker this summer.  It won't come close to making Alice in Wonderland money, but it'll do solid business, especially with Angelina Jolie's star power.

8. Guardians of the Galaxy

This is one of the weirdest releases from Marvel so far, and without an "Iron Man" or "Wolverine" to sell the movie, so I think it'll do really well within the Marvel fanbase but not necessarily with the masses.

9. 22 Jump Street

It comes out the same weekend as How to Train Your Dragon 2, but it shouldn't pose too much of a threat for this R-Rated comedy. I'm expecting it will do about as good as the first movie.

10. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

I would've put this higher, but considering Guardians comes out the week before and since this is strictly a "summer" list, the Turtles reboot probably won't have enough time in theaters to rack up the money.  Still, there's no way this won't make a huge chunk of change - everyone's already talking about it.

Dark Horses:

The Fault in Our Stars
With hardly any counter programming this summer, this could be a breakout hit, especially among women who are sick of testosterone-fueled action movies.

A Million Ways to Die in the West
Ted was a massive hit for Macfarlane, so I'm smelling another success, but Westerns don't usually make much money and there's no cute Teddy bear making foul language.

The only thing really selling this movie is The Rock, and people like that guy.  Who knows, maybe this Hercules movie will be this summer's 300 or Clash of the Titans.


  1. Top Ten:

    1. How to Train Your Dragon 2
    2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
    3. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    4. Godzilla
    5. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    6. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    7. Guardians of the Galaxy
    8. 22 Jump Street
    9. The Fault In Our Stars (This will be the surprise hit of the summer, calling it!)
    10. Hercules

    Dark Horses:

    Get On Up

    Most Likely to Bomb (Added Category Haha):

    Jupiter Ascending

  2. 1) How To Train Your Dragon 2
    2) 22 Jump Street
    3) Amazing Spider-Man 2
    4) X-Men
    5) Transformers
    6) Guardians of the Galaxy
    7) A Million Ways to Die in the West
    8) Maleficent
    9) TMNT
    10) The Fault In Our Stars

    Dark Horse:
    Planet of the Apes


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