Monday, February 18, 2013

Predicting the 85th Academy Awards (EVERY CATEGORY) [UPDATED]

The biggest movie awards show with Seth Macfarlane hosting is only a week away!  Yay. I had fun doing this last year, so I'm going to predict EVERY category that the Academy gives out those little statuettes for.  And again I'm not saying who I want to win, but who I think will win.  Alright, deep breath, here we go! (Once the show is over, I'll highlight the winners in gold.)

[I have to say, even though my predictions were mostly wrong, I was incredibly happy with how the Oscars turned out.  So many pleasant surprises, especially Tarantino and Waltz's wins.  Seth Macfarlane was actually funny, and I thought he pulled off the classy/edgy tightrope gracefully.  It wasn't the most entertaining Oscars ever, but more of the people I wanted to win actually won than who I thought would.  Might as well go over my failures though...]

(* = film I have yet to see)


Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I Predict: Lincoln

I never really expected this until the director nominees were listed, but yes, I believe Lincoln will beat out ArgoLes Misérables, AND Zero Dark Thirty and garner even more awards for that little-known indie director Steven Spielberg.  The seeming leads are Lincoln and Silver Linings, with Argo earning some last-second street cred despite its director not even being nominated.  But y'all know deep down who's gonna sweep up this year; I think we're going to see many clips of men with funny beards play on Sunday.

[I knew I was fucked going into this.  Argo was the clear favorite from nearly everyone, but I decided to be different.  Oh well.  I thought Ben Affleck gave a great speech, and the huge backlash from his directing snub was enough to catapult Argo to the top.]


Michael Haneke, Amour*
Ben Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

I Predict: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Unless Silver Linings Playbook breaks all expectations, Spielberg has this Oscar by the balls.

[WOW!  Did not see this coming at all.  I wasn't the biggest fan of Life of Pi, but Lee is an amazing director who is always choosing incredibly challenging and diverse work, and Pi was certainly worth commending for its huge ambition.]


Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

I Predict: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

This is the toughest of the main categories to predict.  I think it's a battle between De Niro and Tommy Lee Jones, and I've been back and forth on who will win, but if I have to pick one, I'd pick TLJ because it just seems like a safer bet.  De Niro could be awarded in a "nudge-nudge" move by the Academy as if to say: keep doing these roles and forget that Focker business.  But Lincoln had the "bigger" of the two performances, and since I have to pick a side, I'll stick with this one.

[I couldn't be happier that I was wrong.  Christoph Waltz gave a fantastic performance as Dr. King Schultz in Django Unchained, and his win was a happy surprise.]


Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

I Predict: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

Not sure what they were thinking nominating Jacki Weaver (it looks like the Academy has a boner for Silver Linings Playbook), but this award has Hathaway's name all over it, and deservedly so.  For only 10-15 minutes of screen time, she left an indelible mark both on the film and likely the Academy's minds as well.

[This was one of the most obvious wins of the night; not much else to say here.]


Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

I Predict: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

SLAVERY, SIR - IT'S DONE.  I wish Phoenix or Jackman had a chance of winning.  Although Day Lewis gives a great performance, I think The Master and Les Mis featured career-best performances by their respective nominees.

[While they were on a roll with the surprises I was really hoping we might see Hugh Jackman sneak in there, but who could argue with picking Daniel-Day Lewis?  He wasn't playing Lincoln, he was goddamn Lincoln.]


Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour*
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts,  The Impossible

I Predict: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

It's a tight race between Chastain and Lawrence, but considering the sheer number of nominations Silver Linings attained, I think the odds are ever in Ms. Lawrence's favor.

[J Law.]


The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-it Ralph

I Predict: Frankenweenie

What a great year for stop-motion animation!  Hopefully we'll see Tim Burton get his first Oscar, especially for his best film in years.  I'm a little sad to see there isn't some left-field oddball pic from some little animation studio in Paraguay, but I'll take it what I can get.  And if Brave wins I will throw myself head-first off a high ledge.

[Ugh.  I loved Paranorman, Frankenweenie, and Wreck-it Ralph, but the Academy just had to throw Pixar another award.  Brave is definitely lower-tier Pixar, and though the animation was great, the story was kind of a mess.  A pretty disappointing result, I'd say.]


Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins

I Predict: Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda

I think Life of Pi is likely to win some of the technical awards.  The cinematography is absolutely stunning, and like Hugo last year, it pushed the artistic value of 3D.  I hate seeing Deakins lose time after time (seriously, how has he never won?), but I wouldn't feel bad about Life of Pi snatching it up.

[Yup, I guessed right, the 3D is probably what pushed this one over the edge for the voters.]


Amour*, Austria
Kon-Tiki*, Norway
No*, Chile
A Royal Affair*, Denmark
War Witch*, Canada

I Predict: Amour

Unfortunately I haven't checked any of these out yet, but this is as obvious a win as A Separation was last year.  It's nominated for Best Picture, so how on earth could this not win?  HOW, i ask!

[Again, extremely obvious win.]


Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook

I Predict: Lincoln

It's a tough call between this and Silver Linings, but I bet the Academy just loved the old-timey expressions coming out of Tommy Lee Jones and the low key speeches from Lincoln himself.

[When this win was announced I knew how fucked I was for Best Picture.]


Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

I Predict: Zero Dark Thirty

If Quentin didn't win for Inglourious Basterds I doubt he ever will from here on out.  Again, Mark Boal will beat him as he did in 2009 with The Hurt Locker. Although Amour is the one film on the list that is nominated for both Best Picture and Director, I don't think the academy is willing to go "all the way" with a foreign picture (just take your nomination and LIKE IT).

[SO happy I was wrong.  Being a massive Tarantino nut, I was overjoyed that his Inglourious Basterds loss in 2009 was avenged.]


"Before My Time" from Chasing Ice*
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from Ted
"Pi's Lullaby" from Life of Pi
"Suddenly" from Les Misérables
"Skyfall" from Skyfall

I Predict: "Skyfall" from Skyfall

The only thing that makes me weary about this category is the fact that Adele already took home the Golden Globe for Best Song.  It might go to Les Mis or even Pi, but the consensus is that Adele will win yet again for the first Bond song nominated since 1981's For Your Eyes Only.  Plus it's rumored that she'll be performing it on Oscar night.

[Another one of the "obvious" wins.]


Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi

I Predict: Les Misérables

I might be crazy for picking this above Lincoln, but I'm picking it and sticking with it.  From the slaves pulling that big ship at the beginning to the climactic battle in the streets, Les Mis featured stunning production design that I would hate to believe the Academy would dismiss.

[Well, I kind of knew it was stupid to go against Lincoln...oh well.]


Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
Mirror Mirror*
Snow White and the Huntsman

I Predict: Lincoln

A lot of predictors on the interwebs are betting on Anna Karenina, but I'm going with Lincoln.  That's that.

[I was wrong again.  Fuck.]


5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers*
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching For Sugar Man

I Predict: Searching for Sugar Man

In my book all of these docs should have a chance, but I'll give it to Sugar Man for being the one movie on the list that doesn't make you want to kill yourself afterward.

[Glad this one won. Seriously, go watch it and download everything by Rodriguez afterward.]


Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart

I Predict: Open Heart

Each one of these shorts broke my heart.  I watched them all in a row and it was tough to sit through.  For one reason or another Inocente hit the hardest for me, which was about this homeless teenage girl who dreams of becoming an artist, but I think Open Heart will win because of its political angle.  It's about this group of young kids from Rwanda who are candidates for a high-risk heart surgery in the only free state-of-the-art hospital in Africa.  So we're dealing with medical stuff, children, money, corrupt politicians: all "Oscar-y" topics.

[I'm happy I was wrong with this one; Inocente was my personal favorite of the bunch, and if you've seen it you'd know how much a win in this category must have meant to the aspiring artist behind its title.]


Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I Predict: Argo

The Academy might just throw Argo a bone here.  I'm really unsure about this category, and I've cycled through all of them in my head, but somehow settling with Argo feels OK.  They unexpectedly gave it to The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo last year, so it's the same type of deal.  Or I could be totally wrong.

[I got editing right.  So I've got that going for me.]


The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables

I Predict: Les Misérables

For Hugh Jackman's transformation into Jean Valjean alone.  He's nearly unrecognizable and the grime and grunge and dirt on not only him, but all the characters feels authentic and hopeless.  Again, immaculate work behind the scenes on this film, and the other two nominees don't stand a chance.

[Thumbs up to the people who rubbed grime in Anne Hathaway's face.]


Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John Williams
Skyfall, Thomas Newman

I Predict: Lincoln, John Williams

It's such a boring, uninspired score, but it's likely to win.  Dark Knight RisesThe Hobbit, even Cloud Atlas should have been on there before Lincoln.

[Life of Pi? Well, better that than Lincoln.]  


Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'

I Predict: Paperman

Overall I think all of these little shorts are truly great and any one of them deserves to win, but I think Paperman is the best/the one that will win.  This short attached to Wreck-It Ralph was so moving I was fighting my tears from staining my 3D glasses.  Some of these you can find on Youtube, so search away.

[I like seeing amazing little shorts like this getting the acclaim they deserve!]


Buzkashi Boys*
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)*

I Predict: Curfew

Haven't seen any of these yet.  So don't take my word on this one.

[I really can't take credit for this prediction.]


Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty

I Predict: Life of Pi

I'm just going to assume that sound editing and sound mixing will be awarded to the same movie, so between ArgoLife of Pi, and Skyfall, I'm guessing the Academy liked this one's sound best on pure blind speculation.

[My head is hanging in shame.  It was a tie.  Neither of which was my pick.  I'm not going to make it to Final Jeopardy.]


Les Misérables
Life of Pi

I Predict: Life of Pi

Since nobody really talks and/or cares about these little sound categories it's hard to predict, but considering all the artificially created sounds in Life of Pi, with the animals and the ship and whatnot, I'm just wildly guessing that it'll get the best sound mix.  Though Les Mis is tempting on the basis that it's a musical and Lincoln on the basis that it'll just take everything.

[I feel dumb.  Of course the sound category would go to the musical.]


The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers
Snow White and the Huntsman

I Predict: Life of Pi

Like I said, Life of Pi will probably pull a Hugo and get the tech awards. I'm sad to see The Dark Knight snubbed, but I think Life of Pi has THE best CGI ever committed to film (yes, better than ABADAH).  That tiger basically looks photorealistic, and the visual effects pretty much make this movie.  It blows my mind - just LOOK at that tiger!  Looks real, yo.

[Yup, it totally deserves this category.]


[12 out of 24.  50%.  F.  I am a failure.  Really, I'm not going to graduate on time.  I need to reconsider my responsibilities as a movie blogger.  There's always next year though...]

That about wraps it up.  My bets are locked, see you on the other side.

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